Forex: AUD/USD spikes to fresh weekly highs on better domestic data than expected

Aussie has spiked moderately to the upside printing fresh session and weekly highs at 1.0224 following better than expected domestic data. Retail sales for the month of January jumped to +0.9%, best result since Jun last year, and much better than the +0.4% expected and -0.4% for Dec, revised lower from -0.2%. Current account deficit also showed a better than expected result in the data, down -14.7B vs -15.4B. The pair is currently pull backing a bit from mentioned highs, last at 1.0210.

AUD/USD has managed to recover from a fresh 8-month low yesterday at 1.0116, back above previous weekly close around 1.0205, now about flat for the week. All focus now shifts to RBA rate statement at 03:30 GMT, where almost everybody expects no changes, and cash rate futures price in less than 15% chance of a move. “Whilst that would not be unexpected, I would see some downside risk for the AUD immediately post meeting if they do retain their full easing bias,” says FXWW founder Sean Lee.

Immediate resistance to the upside for AUD/USD shows at mentioned fresh weekly highs/Feb 21 lows 1.0220, followed by Mar 01 highs at 1.0240, and Feb 18 lows at 1.0275. To the downside, closest support lies at Feb 27/Mar 01 lows 1.0180, followed by Sept 05 lows at 1.0162, and Oct 08 lows at 1.0145.