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Forex Flash: Draghi shows his poker face – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale believes that Draghi caught the market unawares yesterday by talking down the Euro yesterday, but by warning of the downward impact on inflation of the currency’s strength, he stuck to the ECB’s traditional framework.

He writes, “Mr Draghi may not want to see the European economy crushed by a strong currency, but nor does he want to match the Fed, MPC and BOJ in maintaining super-easy policies after the ‘crisis’ is over. The Euro fell, but the basic direction of monetary policy is still Euro friendly. A turn (down) in EUR/USD is more likely to come from rising US (market) rates in H2, than from yesterday’s meeting. Still, a slightly softer tone from the ECB is ‘good’ for CEE currencies and for GBP too. EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK will probably drift lower.”

Forex Flash: RBA signals scope for easing – BTMU

Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the RBA monetary policy quarterly statement was released overnight and again the signal was clear that there remains scope for monetary easing given the inflation outlook.
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Forex Flash: Subtle verbal intervention by Draghi enough for now – BTMU

Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that all it took were some subtle comments by President Draghi in regard to the level of the Euro to trigger a 1.0% drop in EUR/USD.
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