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Forex Flash: USD/JPY may enter deeper retracement after inside day - Commerzbank

Yesterday's inside day may signal a drop to its 240 minute cloud (currently at 92.20), according to Commerzbank analysts. “The intraday Elliott wave count is indicating a deeper retracement to 91.40 and possibly 89.55 is likely prior to another leg higher”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, also noting that the daily RSI has not confirmed the new high and the 13 count on the weekly chart – both suggest a retracement.

Having already met its target of 93.32/96 (38.2% retracement of the move down from 2007), Commerzbank analysts are wary of a sell off towards trend line supports. “Overhead we have the 2010 high at 94.99 then the March 2009 spike low at 95.77. The TD resistance is 95.62”, they said. On the downside, support is at the 20 day ma, at 91.61, and the 2 month up channel at 90.84, while above here the market will remain immediately bid.

Forex Flash: EUR/USD targets 1.3270/56 and may have topped - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts believe the current rebound should terminate circa 1.3472/1.3518 (50% retracement of the recent sell off) and continue targeting 1.3270/56: “This is the 16th Jan low and the 61.8% retracement, however there is potential for a slide back to the 1.3246 3 month support line”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, suspecting “that the market may well have topped, however key support remains the 1.3164 7 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the up move completely”. Commerzbank analysts point to recovery above 1.3570 to neutralize the immediate outlook and potentially re-target the 1.3711 February high.
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Forex: AUD/USD in highs around 1.0360

The Aussie dollar advanced more than a big figure since yesterday’s lows in the area around 1.0230 to the current levels in the boundaries of 1.0360...
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