FINANCIAL MARKETS LOOK TO OCTOBER INFLATION DATA FROM EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES
GLOBAL INFLATION DATA
During the upcoming trading week financial markets look to October CPI inflation data releases from the United Kingdom, Canadian, European and the United States economies. With the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Bank of England all embarking on a cycle of rate increases, this week's inflation data will be closely watched by Central Bank policy makers.
More top-tier economic data comes into focus later in the week, as we see GDP figures released from the Japanese economy and eurozone trading block. Traders will also look to Retail Sales and housing data from the United States, and employment figures from the Australian economy.
Monday November 13th, Indian CPI Data
The Indian economy releases key CPI data for the month of October, with analysts expecting inflation to rise 3.50 percent, against the previous figure of 3.25 percent.
The impact of inflation on the Indian Rupee currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
Tuesday November 14th, UK CPI Data
The UK economy releases key inflation data for the month of October, with analysts expecting monthly inflation to rise 0.2 percent. The year-on-year figure is expected to increase 3.1 percent, which is slightly higher than the 3 percent recorded for the same period in October 2016.
CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services in the from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the United Kingdom.
Should CPI data come in weaker than expected, the GBPUSD pair will likely decline. A break below the 1.3109 level exposes further losses towards 1.3040 and 1.2980.
Better than expected CPI data will likely see the GBPUSD pair trade above the 1.3200 level. With pound buyers targeting the 1.3268 and 1.3320 levels.
Wednesday 15th November, U.S CPI Data
The U.S economy releases key inflation data for the month of October, at a time when market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve Bank to increase United States interest rate another 0.25 basis points in December.
October year-on-year inflation is expected to increase by 1.7 percent, which is below the 2 percent target of the FED. Month-on-month CPI is expected to rise by 0.2 percent, which is better than previous months figure.
Thursday 16th November, Australian Employment Change
The Australian employment change, which measures the change in the number of people employed, is expected at 15,000 which is slightly down from the 19,000 seen in September. Job creation is increasingly becoming an important indicator of consumer spending in Australia.
Should employment data come in weaker than expected the AUDUSD pair may weaken towards the 0.7610 level. Further declines towards 0.7580 and 0.7480 level remain likely below the 0.7610 level.
Better than expected employment data will likely see the AUDUSD pair rise above the 0.7690 technical level. Further upside towards 0.7710 and 0.7770 levels remains possible.
Friday 17th November, Canadian CPI Data
CPI inflation is expected to decrease in the Canadian economy for the month of October, with month-on-month CPI slipping to 0.1 percent, while year-on-year CPI is seen falling to 1.4 percent. The fall in inflation may keep BOC policy makers on-hold when they next meet to decide on the path of interest rates.
The USDCAD pair is likely to remain on the back-foot while trading below the 1.2670 technical level, further downside seems likely to 1.2610 and 1.2550 while price-action trades below the 1.2670 level.
The USDCAD pair will likely find further technical buying interest while trading above the 1.2740 technical level. Upside momentum should see buyers push-price-action towards the 1.2810 and 1.2840 levels.