A FLOOD OF PMIS ON TUESDAY
Reports on manufacturing and services will dominate the headlines on Tuesday, giving investors the latest glimpse of the Eurozone and US economies. These indicators will be released through a monthly survey called the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which provides a general overview of the economy through the eyes of domestic firms.
Europe will see a deluge of final PMI data for May beginning at 07:15 GMT and ending at 08:30 GMT. Results are expected for Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and United Kingdom.
Germany’s final PMI Composite, which tracks output at manufacturing and services companies, is expected to come in at 53.1. The Eurozone’s final Composite PMI is projected to read 53.9. Meanwhile, the UK’s services scale is expected to read 53.0.
In all the above cases, a reading above 50 signifies expansion in economic activity.
At 09:00 GMT, the European Commission’s statistical agency will report on April retail sales. Receipts are retail stores are forecast to climb 0.5% month-on-month, compared with 0.1% for March. In annualized terms, sales likely rose 1.7%.
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank of England’s Sir Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech at 10:00 GMT.
Shifting gears to North America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will report non-manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. The services indicator is expected to rise to 57.5 for May compared with 56.8 the month before.
Markit will also release a separate US services PMI report, which will be accompanied by the Composite reading for May. However, for investors, the ISM report is more closely monitored by the financial markets.
Europe’s common currency is in recovery mode, with prices approaching the 1.1700 US handle. EUR/USD briefly surpassed that level on Monday, having rebounded roughly 200 pips from last week’s swing low. The pair is currently trading just below that key level as demand for the dollar ebbs. However, the technical picture remains bearish, which means the bulls should be concerned with a pullback in the coming week.
Cable’s recovery was cut short on Monday as Brexit came under the spotlight once again. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.3385 but has since fallen back down to the low 1.3300 range. Immediate support is located at 1.3290. On the opposite side of the ledger, the first wave of resistance is likely found at 1.3375.
The Japanese yen is down to start the week, as risk appetite continues to fuel the equity markets. USD/JPY is once again approaching the psychologically important 110.00 handle. On Monday, the uptrend was halted around 109.92. The pair is now eyeing the 110.10 resistance level. A clean break above would likely send the pair to a re-test of the 110.40 region.